Capital Stocks and Their User Costs for West German Agriculture: A Documentation

Agricultural Finance,

The Future of European Agriculture - An Updated Outlook

This paper reports the results of a European agricultural outlook exercise that updates former studies in three ways, i.e. in terms of timeframes, spatial coverage and policy context. This updated European agricultural outlook constitutes a key component of the forthcoming 'State of the Environment and Outlook report' of the European Environment Agency (EEA). Both activity variables and environmental indicators are reported for a baseline projection and alternative scenarios. The main findings include the following: European harvested land is expected to continue to be primarily used to fodder activities and production of cereals (80% of total area); yields increase is projected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years; environmental pressures are expected to significantly increase in the New Member States, as a result primarily of considerable increase in fertilizers use.agricultural outlook, European agricultural policy, environment, Agribusiness, C61, Q18, Q21,

Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook

In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts subject to the equations of the sector model.agricultural outlook, forecasting, modelling, expert information, Agricultural and Food Policy, C15, C53, Q11, Q19, Q21,

Erfahrungen mit einer Polypolversion des Pachtmarktspiels "Wachsen oder Weichen"

This paper summarises results from the well known game "Wachsen oder Weichen" which mimics characteristics of a land rental market. The original version of the game from Gottingen University has been greatly simplified to investigate the influence of planning errors on outcomes in a game played among agricultural economists at Bonn University. It turned out that players' errors continued to bias the results against the tenants even in the simplified version of the game. Other sources of bias are also discussed in the paper which concludes with suggestions for improvements. Dieses Diskussionspapier faßt Ergebnisse einer Spielrunde mit dem bekannten Pachtmarktspiel "Wachsen oder Weichen" zusammen. Die ursprungliche Version des Spiels aus Gottingen wurde stark vereinfacht, um den Einfluss von Planungsfehlern auf die Ergebnisse zu untersuchen. Planungsfehler verursachten weiterhin eine gewisse Verzerrung des Spielverlaufs zuungunsten der pachtenden Spieler. Weitere Ursachen fur derartige Verzerrungen werden zusammen mit Verbesserungsvorschlagen diskutiert.Land Economics/Use,

CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach

The current paper investigates the long-term global effects of crops productivity changes under different climate scenarios and the impact of biofuels expansion using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) model. These analyses are conducted in the framework of the AgMIP project (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The results indicate that globally there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from agricultural production adjustment as a result of climate change whilst most regions suffering losses in production and consumption. Biofuel expansion leads to land relocation away from crop agricultural commodity production to new energy crops which is reflected in lower production levels of agricultural commodities and higher agricultural prices.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

The Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) Model: Dairy Reform and Western Balkan Countries Accession Scenarios

The aim of this study is to provide and describe a multicommodity analysis able to focus and investigate two EU relevant agricultural policy aspects: the dairy reform and the enlargement to Western Balkan countries. The analysis is carried out using the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model developed in the early 1980s by EuroCARE and the University of Bonn on behalf of DG ESTAT. The model is further upgraded for this study in order to analyse the effects of the Health Check decisions on the EU dairy market as well as the impact of the EU enlargement towards Western Balkans countries. Key results of the main quota expiry scenario for 2020 are that milk production would increase by 3.1% in the EU-27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.3%. Accession effects in the Western Balkan countries would originate in some convergence to EU prices, in technology transfer which would increase yields, and in CAP components introduced on the Western Balkan like milk quotas or decoupled payments.JRC.J.5-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Effects for global agriculture of country-specific climate policy regimes with a focus on methane

While countries have agreed in the Paris-agreement on common rules to report GHG emissions, the design of domestic climate policy regimes remains in the national domain. This may cause different carbon prices for climate gasses across countries, between a country's emission sectors, and within the same sector. Our focus is on methane, which is a major emitter from agriculture, but also linked to livestock farming which is a core activity in agriculture worldwide. We analyse the potential effects of domestic carbon pricing regimes for agriculture in a non-cooperative game theoretic setting using a global agricultural sector model. Our results indicate no ‘race to the bottom’ to apply carbon pricing regimes that result in lowest implicit carbon prices for methane. Enforcing a uniform regime can reduce additional global warming with up to 0.02 °C, but runs the risk of agreeing to lower emission cuts than a nationally determined choice would suggest.Effects for global agriculture of country-specific climate policy regimes with a focus on methanepublishedVersio

Erwartbare Konsequenzen einer Dezentralisierung im Bereich der Agrarpolitik

Abgesehen von ihrer zweifelhaften grundsätzlichen Berechtigung wird die Kompetenzzuweisung in der (Gemeinsamen) Agrarpolitik zunehmend kritisch gesehen, insbesondere im Hinblick auf die Bemessung der verschiedenen Direktzahlungen. Einen ersten Zugang zu den Folgen einer Dezentralisierung liefert eine Bestandsaufnahme zu den gegenwärtigen regionalen Verteilungswirkungen der Agrarpolitik im Sinne einer spezifischen Inzidenzanalyse. Bei aller Unsicherheit über die quantitativen Größenordnungen kann es als abgesichertes Ergebnis gelten, dass die gegenwärtige Agrarpolitik im Wesentlichen auf Kosten der urban geprägten Kreise geht. Der Beitrag diskutiert die weitergehende Frage, ob hieraus folgt, dass eine dezentralisierte Agrarpolitik auch weniger protektionistisch wäre, was zwar naheliegend, jedoch keineswegs eindeutig ist.Apart from lacking a basic rationale the Common Agricultural Policy is subject to criticism for inappropriate centralisation of competences. This criticism intensifies as the importance of direct payments in the set of agricultural policy instruments is increasing. As a first step towards an impact analysis of decentralising agricultural policy this contribution presents regional effects of the present, centralised policy compared to a counterfactual liberalisation scenario. In spite of a number of caveats a rather unambiguous result is that urban regions in particular bear the burden of current protectionist policies. Whether this also implies that a decentralised agricultural policy would also be less protectionist must remain open as there are sound arguments both in favour and against this proposition

Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model

Although numerous modelling efforts have integrated food and water considerations at the farm or river basin level, very few agro-economic models are able to jointly assess water and food policies at the global level. The present report explores the feasibility of integrating water considerations into the CAPRI model. First, a literature review of modelling approaches integrating food and water issues has been conducted. Three agro-economic models, IMPACT, WATERSIM and GLOBIOM, have been analysed in detail. In addition, biophysical and hydrological models estimating agricultural water use have also been studied, in particular the global hydrological model WATERGAP and the LISFLOOD model. Thanks to the programming approach of its supply module, CAPRI shows a high potentiality to integrate environmental indicators as well as to enter new resource constraints (land potentially irrigated, irrigation water) and input-output relationships. At least in theory, the activity-based approach of the regional programming model in CAPRI allows differentiating between rainfed and irrigated activities. The suggested approach to include water into the CAPRI model involves creating an irrigation module and a water use module. The development of the CAPRI water module will enable to provide scientific assessment on agricultural water use within the EU and to analyze agricultural pressures on water resources. The feasibility of the approach has been tested in a pilot case study including two NUTS 2 regions (Andalucia in Spain and Midi-Pyrenees in France). Preliminary results are presented, highlighting the interrelations between water and agricultural developments in Europe. As a next step, it is foreseen to further develop the CAPRI water module to account for competition between agricultural and non-agricultural water use. This will imply building a water use sub-module to compute water use balances

Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model

Although numerous modelling efforts have integrated food and water considerations at the farm or river basin level, very few agro-economic models are able to jointly assess water and food policies at the global level. The present report explores the feasibility of integrating water considerations into the CAPRI model. First, a literature review of modelling approaches integrating food and water issues has been conducted. Three agro-economic models, IMPACT, WATERSIM and GLOBIOM, have been analysed in detail. In addition, biophysical and hydrological models estimating agricultural water use have also been studied, in particular the global hydrological model WATERGAP and the LISFLOOD model. Thanks to the programming approach of its supply module, CAPRI shows a high potentiality to integrate environmental indicators as well as to enter new resource constraints (land potentially irrigated, irrigation water) and input-output relationships. At least in theory, the activity-based approach of the regional programming model in CAPRI allows differentiating between rainfed and irrigated activities. The suggested approach to include water into the CAPRI model involves creating an irrigation module and a water use module. The development of the CAPRI water module will enable to provide scientific assessment on agricultural water use within the EU and to analyze agricultural pressures on water resources. The feasibility of the approach has been tested in a pilot case study including two NUTS 2 regions (Andalucia in Spain and Midi-Pyrenees in France). Preliminary results are presented, highlighting the interrelations between water and agricultural developments in Europe. As a next step, it is foreseen to further develop the CAPRI water module to account for competition between agricultural and non-agricultural water use. This will imply building a water use sub-module to compute water use balances.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom